Economic Themes (2025) 63 (2) 7, 225-240
Biljana Stanivuk
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between fiscal consolidation programmes and the cyclically adjusted balance in the Republic of Srpska. The impact of fiscal consolidation on the cyclically adjusted balance is assessed through regression analysis. Numerous studies and empirical data have shown that fiscal consolidation measures can affect the level and structure of the cyclically adjusted balance. Furthermore, there are complex interrelations, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between short-term and long-term effects, i.e., those arising from discretionary fiscal measures versus those resulting from automatic stabilisers. The paper emphasises the significant gap in understanding the influence of cyclically adjusted balances on decision-making processes across various sectors and macroeconomic conditions. This lack of deeper insight limits fiscal policymakers’ ability to manage risks, forecast future performance, and make informed decisions. Cyclically adjusted balances play a vital role in economic data analysis, particularly in environments characterised by fluctuations in public revenues and expenditures due to various internal and external factors. However, there is still ambiguity about how adjustments for cyclical variations actually impact fiscal strategies, fiscal consolidation efforts, and their practical implications
Keywords: Cyclically Adjusted Balance; Fiscal Consolidation; Economic Cyclical Fluctuations; Discretionary Fiscal Measures; Regression Analysis.
THE IMPACT OF FISCAL CONSOLIDATION ON THE LEVEL OF THE CYCLICALLY ADJUSTED BALANCE IN THE REPUBLIC OF SRPSKA
Biljana Stanivuk
Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between fiscal consolidation programmes and the cyclically adjusted balance in the Republic of Srpska. The impact of fiscal consolidation on the cyclically adjusted balance is assessed through regression analysis. Numerous studies and empirical data have shown that fiscal consolidation measures can affect the level and structure of the cyclically adjusted balance. Furthermore, there are complex interrelations, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between short-term and long-term effects, i.e., those arising from discretionary fiscal measures versus those resulting from automatic stabilisers. The paper emphasises the significant gap in understanding the influence of cyclically adjusted balances on decision-making processes across various sectors and macroeconomic conditions. This lack of deeper insight limits fiscal policymakers’ ability to manage risks, forecast future performance, and make informed decisions. Cyclically adjusted balances play a vital role in economic data analysis, particularly in environments characterised by fluctuations in public revenues and expenditures due to various internal and external factors. However, there is still ambiguity about how adjustments for cyclical variations actually impact fiscal strategies, fiscal consolidation efforts, and their practical implications
Keywords: Cyclically Adjusted Balance; Fiscal Consolidation; Economic Cyclical Fluctuations; Discretionary Fiscal Measures; Regression Analysis.
